It’s 2014. I sit in a pub in Brighton. The bar drips melamine shavings onto the threadbare carpet. The dusty seats are made of a fabric so rough it could survive a nuclear winter. A stone-faced man nurses a flat pint of lager at the bar, as a woman talks energetically to the side of his face. The whole place has a musty haze, as though the smoking ban had just been introduced yesterday, not seven years previously.
“Look at this place,” my friend says to me, smiling, as we approach the bar. “How retro.”

This pub was an unusual sight for Brighton. Even at that time, most pubs here had already grown out of trendy filament lightbulbs and dove grey paint. In this seaside city on England’s south coast, being alternative, left-leaning, liberal, progressive, is not uncommon, it’s the norm. We sit comfortably in our bubble of the Guardian, the Green Party and Goji berry smoothies. If there is anything left of the polling industry after recent events, it is doubtful that they would ever come to Brighton. We are representative of only ourselves (and possibly Shoreditch).

The pub where I drank that spring afternoon, trying not to make too much eye contact, was way more representative of ‘real’ Britain. It was straight, in a non-sexual sense. No tongue was in its cheek. It had no ideal, belief nor ‘theme’. It was, just a pub.

Fast forward to 2016, and this story resurfaces like a repeating meal. It strikes me as showing just how out of touch we on the ‘left’ (and I admit I use that term in the broad sense) have become with vast swathes of the population. And, how we tragically misunderstood, and at worst dismissed, those who felt, right or wrongly, left behind by modern, progressive society – I call them, the left-behinders.

The Trumpian wave

Watching the Trumpian wave advance across America on 8-9 November brought a familiar chill to me. It was a growing, indeed sickening de ja vu of Brexit from just over four months earlier. It brought back all those reassurances we had professed and reinforced in our liberal bubble; that the decent, fair, equal and just values we presume to share would surely triumph over nationalist, isolationist and populist division. Yet here, once again, was the nightmarish realisation that we had been proved so horribly wrong.

Both the UK Referendum and the US Election blazed with an incendiary tone. The respective winning teams displayed practices so deplorable and irresponsible that they should have no place in civilised society, let alone important votes. Beyond the terrible racism, sexism and outright lying, however, both Trump and Vote Leave somehow resonated with the left-behinders in a way that the opposition just could not.

So who are the left-behinders? Well, in large part they are people who go to ‘normal’ pubs, un-ironically, and live ‘normal’ lives, unironically. Unlike previous times in history, this loose group were not all conservatives, but rather drew from disparate walks of life and with political leanings that cut across all points on the spectrum (not that spectrum). Most of all, they were people grappling with a sense of where their world was, where it was going next, and, crucially, how they felt about that.

Instead of engaging and understanding, I and like-minded others called them ignorant, racist, and, yes, I’m looking at you Hilary, ‘deplorable’. By ignoring and deriding those who thought differently (well, thought that they thought differently), we as the broad liberal left opened the door for the callous unification of these left-behinders behind a hideous, insidious and retrograde new banner.

The crackpots take centre stage

The alt-right, Trump, Ukip, Vote Leave, Nigel Farage, Boris Johnson and a whole army of long-ignored crackpots; they started the fire, but we provided the oxygen. Unintentionally, a wrong-headed credence was given to the left-behinders’ suspicion that their way of life and social values were under threat. And that their grievances were being dismissed by the elite kabals in their ‘Babylons’ of London, New York and Washington

You get the sense that these people had no idea or interest in the true reality of EU politics. And had never heard of Brietbart or the birther conspiracy. A hardcore of racists, xenophobes and political activists drove the movement, inculcating their specific brand of fear-driven populist hate into others. Yet they are not the left-behinders. The left-behinders are normal people. They are the passive mass. They select political movements in line with their values, yes, but more so their self-interest.

Take the 1/9/90 rule of internet culture – essentially, 1% create, 9% participate and 90% just passively absorb. Applying this mix, the left-behinders are the 90%, absorbing the self-serving rhetoric of the 1% (a big, orange 1%) via the projections, both online and offline, of the 9%. With just a passing interest in politics and other preoccupations in their lives, they had snatched moments to pick a side. In this, simple ideals and headline claims – Take our Country back, Make America Great Again, etc – absorbed fastest and easiest, taking hold like a tic burrowing into the skin.

In both the US and UK, the left-behinders were faced with two alarmingly polarised options to choose from; one side confidently exulted that they were right to feel maligned, that their unfounded beliefs about immigration, trade, race and the economy were not racist, xenophobic or self-serving, but in fact correct. That their guilty prejudices were not distasteful but should instead be shouted loud and proud. And that there was a simple way to feel safe, prosperous and valued again in an increasingly complex and challenging world. Vote Leave. Back The Donald.

Meanwhile, the other side remained lofty and aloof. Discussing complexity with a ‘you wouldn’t understand this, but trust me’ tone. They called, sometimes demanded, decency from the left-behinders, yet the left-behinders already felt that they were decent. They posited the importance of globalisation, human rights, equality; yet never illustrated why it should matter to these people (I am guilty, too, of sharing the assumption that why wouldn’t they care?). And when the tone got heated, instead of engaging constructively to win them over, the other side so often just simply shouted in the left-behinders’ face, ‘you’re wrong, you racist idiot’.

For me, the real tragedy is that the labour, liberal and left-wing movements on both sides of the Atlantic so spectacularly failed to connect with the left-behinders. This is not to say that their fears and beliefs should not have been challenged, but rather that the only way to do this was via constructive engagement, and that was found wanting in the extreme.

Although the left should be pleased not have stopped so low as to fight the opposition’s tactics with fire, the left-behinders were still, well, left behind. Even those who had long voted Labour and Democrat looked to their political cheerleaders and saw, in their heavily influenced view, just far removed career politicians, sipping fine red wine and debating which house refit to put on expenses. You can see why, if not still fully understand, they asked, ‘so who is looking out for me?’ And someone sure was ready to take up that call.

The Donald makes his move

Donald Trump had been waiting for his moment since the late 1980s, when he first mulled a jaunt for White House. His mind was surely crystallised, however, when he was so wondrously lampooned by Barack Obama at the 2011 White House Correspondents’ Dinner. This included the President mocking up an imagined Trump White House complete with garish neon, gold pillars and hot tub on the south lawn. Trump must have thought through gritted teeth, ‘I’m going to wipe the smile off his face’.

After he won the Republican nomination in 2016, his next challenge was to solve a problem like Hilary. She was equally famous, already familiar with the White House, vastly experienced and had everyone from Bruce Springsteen to the Obamas ready to back her. Trump needed a, well, trump card. He must have seen the rise of a neo-right (alt-right seems to wrongly intellectualise a movement that doesn’t deserve it) across the world, and been heartened by idiotic tsunami that was Brexit. Adopting the same approach as with Trump initiatives in the past – from hotels to steaks – he seized upon the opportunity to do the greatest deal of his life.

Trump knew the right buttons to press with the media. Despite his protestations of a ‘conspiracy’ against him, the media has always been his obsession, and he has been its. He also knew how to reach out to people already ready and willing to flock to his coat tails, and say just what they wanted to hear. ‘Yeah, let’s build a wall! And Muslims are bad! Obamacare sucks! Let’s torpedo Planned Parenthood! Hilary for prison!’ In the frenzy of sex, lies and videotapes, only a few lone voices pointed out that this was a man who was once a registered Democrat, who had on record waxed lyrical about his friendship with Hilary, who had called for the legalisation of drugs and was in favour of abortion rights.

In 2016, he rolled back on it all, and more, happy to say just about anything that they wanted as long as they kept on attending his rallies, exulting at the Trump alter, and chanting slogans, such as ‘lock her up’ and ‘drain that swamp’. It was Brexit x 1,000 – the same procession of untruth after untruth going unchecked, with the opposition standing with exasperated expressions, as though to say, ‘surely, no one is believing this crap?’ The problem was, of course, that the left-behinders were listening, and in their millions.

The signs were there

I voted Remain and would have voted Hilary if I could. She made significant mistakes during her campaign and does appear to have skeletons in her closet. Yet compared to Trump, her flaws are like a typo on a CV – sure, it’s careless and you can read into that, yet that should not rule out a credible and solid candidate. What should rule out a candidate are things like mocking disabled people and veterans, making lewd and offensive comments about women and insulting a Gold Star family, but hey ho.

Even as a supporter of Remain and Clinton, the tone of both campaigns concerned me. There was a haughty, knowing arrogance that was just too easy for someone so inclined to rebel against, or urge others to do so. But most of all the lack of an ability to connect with the remarkably disparate collective of left-behinders – floating voters, whatever you want to call them – was alarming to say the least.

The bitter campaign of the Scottish referendum fired the warning shot, and those disgruntled chickens came home to roost with Brexit (although, of course, Scotland voted to stay in). Throughout both campaigns there always seemed to be this underlying assumption that the ‘idiots would see sense eventually’. Let’s scare them a little with some heavy economic warnings. Yeah, that’s a good idea. And maybe get Barack Obama to say we’re back of the queue in any trade deals. Yeah, that’s not going to piss anyone off, right? And surely long-time Labour voters would never side with the Home Counties Euro Sceptic brigade. That’s crazy talk!

‘What were you guys thinking?’

After the Brexit vote, with liberal bubbles bursted in London, Brighton and other places, I talked to some American colleagues. They asked, ‘what were you guys thinking?’ in utter disbelief. Well, I pointed out that it should be, ‘what were 52% of you thinking?’ These Americans (likeminded to me, of course) were sure in their belief that while Trump had won the nomination in May, there was no way a reality TV star with no military or political background, someone who changed his views and allegiances as often as he changes his suits and was happy to mock anyone for a cheap laugh, could become POTOS 45.

And that belief was dangerous. It underestimated the unusual appeal of a showman like Trump and indeed the impact of a powerhouse celebrity riding a genuine wave of social discontent. Not only did the Clinton campaign appear to skirt over America’s average Joe’s and Jane’s, it also wrongly assumed popular disgust with Trump would override other issues important to key groups. People boggle at the amount of Latinos who voted for Trump, but not all Latinos in the US are Mexican. More than 50% of Cuban voters in Florida backed Trump as they had their own grievances with Obama and Clinton.

Most of all both Vote Remain in the UK and the Clinton campaign in the US appeared to misunderstand that people are willing to forget the things they don’t like (even horrible racist and sexist abuse, it seems) when they are ready and willing for something new. Crucially, too, they’ll turn a blind eye when they are left to believe that there’s no other credible way to safeguard their future. The saying goes that bad things happen when good people do nothing. Here, it was that bad things happen when good people don’t listen.

What’s the plan, Donald?

The story of the left-behinders is like a comic tragedy, yet only a few callous souls are laughing. The fact that a free-wheeling buffoon from Eton and a shameless billionaire, who owns more than one golden tower for Christ’s sake, could provide more meaningful visions for the future for these people, is a tragedy in itself. Now, a Pandora’s box of negative feeling has been opened on both side of the Atlantic. Racism, sexism, antisemitism, Islamaphobia – these putrid flames have been fanned to furnace-like proportions.

The words ‘divisive’ and ‘polarising’ have been used repeatedly to describe both campaigns, but I’d add another; opportunistic. The ring leaders of Vote Leave and the Trump campaign appear to have seized on discontent as a vessel on which to ride to power. Yet, they appear to have been so unprepared for actually winning. While there may be dark and unseen forces moving behind the scenes, these Iago-esque plotters appear to have had little or no plan in place for what comes next.

Farage, Johnson and Gove have all evaded the direct Brexit fallout to varying degrees, as though they publicly announced their intention to leave their wife for a younger woman, only to their horror find out that she is actually an idiot. Trump himself appears utterly dismayed that he is going to have to spend countless hours in tedious briefings when he could instead be opening a new golf course. Is it too late to admit it was a joke?

When the next four years are up, I believe (read, hope) that the Trump-ageddon will prove less seismic than people fear. As detestable, self-serving and manipulating as he is, he will soon learn the testing realities at the sharp end of politics. He’ll find that creating a tax system for a country of 250 million people is rather trickier than engineering a way to pay no tax at all (allegedly, of course, as his own tax history remains a mystery).

Likewise, when the UK does secure a messy divorce from the EU, the reality that we can’t really exist without proper trade and cooperation with EU will dawn and so we should probably have some processes in place for… ug, I can’t even finish… At that stage, or earlier, these left-behinders who have been so hoodwinked by this twin coup, will have likely have realised as much. And after all this wholly unnecessary turmoil and upheaval, all I can hope is that we can step out of our bubbles and learn that it is not what divides us that matters, it is what unites us: the shared desire for a better tomorrow.